One day after ING asked why Trump is “making everyone (else) great again” (MEGA) by crushing the USD, and just hours after Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow explained that “it’s all about the Euro“, here is ING again, pointing out that when it comes to currency markets, the “EUR madness” goes on, courtesy of chief FX strategist, Chris Turner.
EUR: The “EUR madness” goes on
It cannot be described as other than “EUR madness”. EUR/USD briefly broke above the 1.1900 level on virtually no market moving news – in an environment where German bund yields have actually been nudging lower.
Our short-term fair value model indicates a remarkable 2.5% EUR/USD overvaluation. It is not purely about the USD weakness as USD is in fact up against non-European G10 currencies. Sentiment and technical seem to be the prime drivers.
His conclusion: “Unless we see a strong US labour market report tomorrow, trading could be at 1.200 by the weekend. Expected solid EZ June retail sales to keep bullish EUR trend in place.”