While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, & Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak through – the looming debt ceiling crisis that has now become too big and too imminent to ignore.
Of course, uncertainty in The White House is starting to make investors realize the chance of successfully navigating the debt ceiling crisis without a government shutdown are dwindling…
With the T-Bill market pricing in serious disruption at the end of September, the risk of a technical default for US Treasury debt is starting to rise and is now spiking relative to Germany.
In fact, as the chart above shows, the current ‘risk’ in USA debt/devaluation markets is twice that of Germany’s – worse than at the peak of the shutdown in 2013 and worse than the shutdown debacle in 2015.
USA Default Risk premium has not been this high since Lehman.