U.S. stocks have risen more in the past eight years than in almost any other post-World War II time of economic growth, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The logic here is that economic expansions fuel bull markets and so it’s reasonable to measure market recoveries after a period of macro contraction ends.
Using that definition, let’s review how the S&P 500 has performed during the last ten economic recoveries. To be precise, the birth of the stock market’s bull market is dated as the first day after an NBER-defined recession has ended. The market run continues through the peak.
The S&P 500 Index jumped 172 percent from July 2009, when the current expansion started, through Wednesday. The biggest advance was about 300 percent and occurred from April 1991 to March 2001, when Internet-related stocks soared.
As Capital Speculator blog’s James Picerno notes, the question before the house: Will the momentum of late endure long enough to overtake the 1991-2001 record in duration and/or magnitude?
If so, the bull market in the here and now has to last another 463 trading days, which translates into a market rally that goes deep into 2019.
There’s just one thing wrong…
Remember – the ‘market’ is not the ‘economy’… or maybe it is in the new normal?