Central Banks Stumped As Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009 – Here’s Why

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Yesterday, I commented on “transitory” factors holding down inflation. Today, the Wall Street Journal reports Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday that consumer prices across the G-20—the countries that account for most of the world’s economic activity—were 2% higher than a year earlier. The last time inflation was lower was in October 2009, when it stood at 1.7%, as the world started to emerge from the sharp economic downturn that followed the global financial crisis.   The contrast between then and now highlights the mystery facing central bankers in developed economies as they attempt to raise inflation to their targets, which they have persistently undershot in ...

Sarraf reiterates support for State Security

Defense Minister Yaacoub Sarraf praised Friday the role played by State Security, offering his ministry’s support to the agency

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Iraq finds mass grave in former Daesh-held city

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Frontrunning: August 4

July’s U.S. Labor-Market Numbers Will Probably Look Familiar (BBG) Paul Singer Says Passive Investing Is ‘Devouring Capitalism’ (BBG) Beyond Bankruptcy: How Failed Stores Come Back Online (WSJ) Tesla short sellers lose almost $800 million as stock rallies after earnings (MW) Toyota, Mazda to Invest in Each Other (WSJ) EU to impose more Russia sanctions over Siemens case on Friday (Reuters) Trouble Comes in Threes for Germany’s DAX Losing European Crown (BBG) Credit Card Rewards Are Playing Harder to Get (BBG) China regulators plan to crack down further on overseas deals (Reuters) BOE Finds Error Behind Spike in U.K. Mortgage Arrears (BBG) China’s Fear of Japan-Style Economic Bust Drives Crackdown on Deals, Says Source (BBG) RBS Investment Bank Income Jumps, Amsterdam Picked as EU Hub...

“Payrolls Should Be Boring: Two Numbers Can Make It Exciting”

From Steven Englander of Rafiki Capital Even when non-farm payrolls (NFP) are as neglected and downplayed as this time around, you have to ask yourself what it would take to make them meaningful. The reason for the markets disinterest is that no one thinks the Fed is going to raise rates earlier than December and we have four more payrolls releases beyond tomorrow’s release before they have to decide. And even though Janet Yellen has been certified as a ‘low interest-rates person’ she is unlikely to cut rates any time soon. We have only one additional release before the expected balance sheet reduction announcement. But it would take a lot to put some uncertainty into the balance sheet shrinkage . Especially because claims have been extremely stable at extremely low levels, no one wi...

Gold Outperforming Stocks YTD As Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline

Gold Outperforming Stocks YTD As Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline  – Gold consolidates on 2.5% gain in July as the dollar has fifth monthly decline– Trump administration and vicious “civil war” politics casting shadow over America and impacting dollar– All eyes on non farm payrolls today for further signs of  weakness in U.S. economy– Gold recovers from 1.7% decline in June as dollar falls– Gold outperforms stocks and benchmark S&P 500 YTD– Gold gains 10.8% versus 10.6% gain for S&P – led by frothy tech sector (see performance table)– Gold outperforms stocks globally – Euro Stoxx 50 up 5.7% ytd, FTSE up 4.8% and Nikkei up 4.5%– Gold’s technicals increasingly positive; now trading above its 50-day & 2...

A “Scary Thought” From Richard Breslow: “What If Bond Yields Were Right All Along?”

With global stock indices – and the S&P – both just shy of all time highs, even as bond yields stubbornly refuse to validate the “equity upside” story, Bloomberg’s macro commentator Richard Breslow, looking at recent yields and spreads writes that “in reality, these spreads just can’t be doing what they’re doing if the tapering and rate-hike stories were truly being given credibility” and has a troubling thought: “what is bond yields have been right all along”? If that’s the case, “what we are actually seeing is the re-emergence of that horrible construct, which apparently never went away: “Bad news is good news.” That would mean that “the Fed, and everyone else, had better hope that we begin to see wage inflation...

Army targets Daesh positions in northeast Lebanon

The Lebanese Army Friday shelled positions held by Daesh (ISIS) militants holed up in the outskirts of a northeastern border town, state-media reported

Berri to congratulate Rouhani in Tehran

Speaker Nabih Berri departed for Tehran Friday morning, after being invited to celebrate the swearing-in of recently re-elected Iranian President Hasan Rouhani

Venezuela restores opposition leader Ledezma’s house arrest: wife

Venezuelan intelligence agents have returned opposition leader Antonio Ledezma to his home, where he is serving house arrest, after taking him to prison early on Tuesday, Ledezma’s wife said via Twitter on Friday

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